By Shishir Prashant 
In these elections to four State Assemblies and one Union Territory (Pondicherry), it is not just the contestants who are so keen to know the voters preferences with regard to government formation. In whole India, people are looking forward to the results which will decide a high stake test for leadership of Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Stalin in Tamil Nadu and Pinarayi Vijayan in Keralam. The counting of votes begins on Monday morning.
What make these elections special is that all the CM contestants are veteran leaders who have proved their administrative capability and provided a stable, effective government. This also includes the chief minister of Assam and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma.
All these three CMs are household names in the respective States. So, any fight against them is not easy. However, all of them are in a fierce competition this time. Will they be able to emerge victorious? There are still few hours left for the counting to begin.
It is very difficult to forecast the fortunes of these leaders in this election. Most of the media reports are biased. The reports rarely show the feelings of the real voters. Most reports are stage managed.
I have not been to any of these states during this election time. But I have been speaking to people and seeing numerous videos. Plus, with my own understanding, I feel that all the CMs might continue to remain in power. This means LDF in Kerala, DMK plus in TN, TMC in WB and BJP plus in Assam. This is because, besides the policies of the parties, the CMs have been able to provide good governance to the people with welfare schemes.
In Kerala, the voters usually vote for change. But this didn’t happen last time, mainly because of the leadership given by Vijayan, who seems to have more opponents in his own party than among opposition parties. Vijayan’s leadership during the floods, Covid, Nipah and Wayanad landslides were praised by the common people.
This time, the UDF is reported to have given a good fight but it failed to project any CM face which may affect the alliance. If it doesn’t win this time, the Congress Party is sure to land into more troubles, being without power for one more term.
The BJP is nowhere in the scene, except looking for few seats, though the PM and HM had visited the state many times and campaigned extensively.
I think same is the case in TN, where Stalin has proved a very good administrator. His opponents are fragmented. The film actor Vijay factor, according to me, is more likely to affect the AIADMK front of which the BJP is a party. It will be very interesting to see what will be the final outcome of Vijay’s TVK party.
In Assam, Gaurav Gogoi has tried his best to put up a good fight against his former colleague, Himanta Sarma. Though it may manage to increase seats this time, I don’t think Gogoi will be able to unseat a shrewd Himanta.
The most fearsome fight is happening in WB. Mamata Banerjee is fighting a fierce battle against Narendra Modi-led BJP. Home Minister Amit Shah was camping in the State for a week and the PM too stayed there for a long time during the electioneering. The SIR has altered the voting list drastically. 2.7 million voters have been removed. The State is full of central forces giving a war look to streets of West Bengal. There are reports of misuse of these forces. Voters have been polarized in the name of religion. But Mamata the politician has turned it into Bengal Vs Centre. I don’t know how these are going to impact polling. However, my hunch is that Mamata will survive, like in the last Assembly election. Whatever information I have gathered so far, I believe that Vijayan, Stalin, Himanta and Mamata will continue to sit in the CM’s chairs.
About author: Vidyadharan Mangalath is a senior journalist.
Comments in this column are personal.