By Shishir Prashant 
PrashantNews
An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update from WMO signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026. Forecasts indicate there is a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the upcoming three-month period, and regional variations in rainfall patterns.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he says.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. These events reshape global weather, influencing rainfall, drought, and extreme events across regions. Governments, humanitarian organizations, water managers, and farmers depend on accurate and timely ENSO forecasts to anticipate and respond to risks.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
WMO does not use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
El Niño events affect temperature and rainfall patterns in different regions and typically have a warming effect on the global climate. Thus, 2024 was the hottest year on record because of the combination of the powerful 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases.
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Each El Niño event is unique in terms of its evolution, spatial pattern and impacts.
However, it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
During the Boreal summer, El Niño’s warm water can fuel hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, while it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.
WMO also issues a monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update which takes into account ENSO and other key climate drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode or the Indian Ocean Dipole.
For the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere. The signal is especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa.