By Shishir Prashant 
PrashantNews
El Niño continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns in the August-October 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the developing El Niño is expected to shape weather patterns across many parts of the world in the months ahead.
The WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.
WMO’s monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Niño will continue to steadily intensify into a strong event during August–October 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. In addition to a strengthening El Niño, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (a climate pattern in the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer on average, while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average) is forecast. Together, these oceanic drivers can amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian ocean basin. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas. Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop. More coal, oil and gas will lead to a more combustible future. Unless we act – to protect people and tackle the root cause of the crisis – the dangers will become deadlier still. The warm-up act is over. We cannot afford to wait for the main event.” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do. This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow. WMO and its Members are committed to ensuring that credible and relevant climate information reaches those that need it most,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO’s full El Niño/La Niña Update (next to be issued in early Sept). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Niño.